Agricultural and Economy‐Wide Effects of European Enlargement: Modelling the Common Agricultural Policy
用全球一般均衡模型模拟欧盟共同农业政策扩展到中东欧国家的影响，发现这些国家农业增产潜力大，欧盟预算增加但宏观经济成本有限。
The economic impact of extending the Common Agricultural Policy to the Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC) has become a major issue in the European enlargement debate. This paper provides an assessment of the economy‐wide effects of European enlargement using a global general equilibrium model where special attention is given to modelling the instruments of the Common Agricultural Policy, the Agenda 2000 proposal and the EU budget. The results indicate a substantial potential for increasing agricultural production in the CEEC. The EU budget will increase significantly and the transfers from EU taxpayers to farmers in the CEEC result in significant welfare gains in the new member countries. In spite of these important transfers the macroeconomic costs for the EU are found to be limited.