The Short- and Long-Term Career Effects of Graduating in a Recession
利用大型纵向数据，分析大学毕业生在衰退期进入劳动力市场后长达十年的收入损失，发现不利毕业生因难以跳槽至好企业而遭受持久影响。
This paper analyzes the magnitude and sources of long-term earnings declines associated with graduating from college during a recession. Using a large longitudinal university-employer-employee dataset, we find that the cost of recessions for new graduates is substantial and unequal. Unlucky graduates suffer persistent earnings declines lasting ten years. They start to work for lower paying employers, and then partly recover through a gradual process of mobility toward better firms. We document that more advantaged graduates suffer less from graduating in recessions because they switch to better firms quickly, while earnings of less advantaged graduates can be permanently affected by cyclical downgrading.