TALKING ABOUT PROBABILITIES: A LOGICAL PROBLEM FOR OR/MS
指出自然语言中“概率”一词的含义常因语境和惯例而模糊，通过分析一个级联推理问题展示四种不同解释，其中三种合理，并警告形式化的数学解释可能导致不当决策分析。
ABSTRACT The correct interpretation of a natural language statement is determined as much by convention and shared meanings as by logical content. Therefore, when the word “probability” is used in the statement of a decision problem, the intended interpretation is not always clear. If such a statement also contains explicit probability formulae, confusion and even paradox may result. In this article, a problem involving cascaded inference is interpreted in four ways, three of which are regarded by the authors as legitimate or reasonable. The problem was originally suggested by Einhorn [3] and further discussed by Libby [10]. It is suggested here that a formal, mathematicist interpretation of the word “probability” might lead to inappropriate analyses of some decisions.