FORECASTING METROPOLITAN EMPLOYMENT USING AN EXPORT‐BASE ERROR‐CORBECTION MODEL
证明基于出口的区位商时间序列将区域就业分解为出口和本地部分，两者存在协整关系，并利用误差修正模型进行长期就业预测，提供了一种简单、低成本的方法。
ABSTRACT This paper shows that a time‐series version of export‐based location quotients, which decompose area employment into export and local components are co‐integrated. Given the statistically established co‐integrating relation between the time series for export and local employment, the Granger Representation Theorem tells us that an error‐correction mechanism model is the appropriate time‐series model specification. A set of forecasting experiments is carried out, in order to test whether the error‐correction model produces better long‐run forecasts that hold together in economically meaningful ways. Given the computer hardware and software that currently exist, the model developed here represents a simple, low‐cost method for accurately forecasting local‐area employment in the tradition of past work on export‐base models.