The Future of US Economic Growth
现代增长理论指出，自1950年以来超过四分之三的增长源于教育和研发投入，但这些动力减弱后美国增长可能放缓；中国等新兴经济体或可维持全球研究人员增长，而人工智能可能带来更高增长的不确定性。
Modern growth theory suggests that more than three-quarters of growth since 1950 reflects rising educational attainment and research intensity. As these transition dynamics fade, US economic growth is likely to slow at some point. However, the rise of China, India, and other emerging economies may allow another few decades of rapid growth in world researchers. Finally, and more speculatively, the shape of the idea production function introduces a fundamental uncertainty into the future of growth. For example, the possibility that artificial intelligence will allow machines to replace workers to some extent could lead to higher growth in the future.