The Coming Global Climate–Technology Revolution
指出,现有技术虽能减少温室气体排放,但稳定浓度需要一场全球性的技术革命,涉及市场、政府及突破性技术,并警示若革命失败可能引发气候工程。
Emissions of CO 2 and other greenhouse gases can be reduced significantly using existing technologies, but stabilizing concentrations will require a technological revolution—a “revolution” because it will require fundamental change, achieved within a relatively short period of time. Inspiration for a climate–technology revolution is often drawn from the Apollo space program or the Manhattan Project, but averting dangerous climate change cannot be “solved” by a single new technology, deployed by a single government. The technological changes needed to address climate change fundamentally will have to be pervasive; they will have to involve markets; and they will have to be global in scope. My focus in this paper is not on the moderate emission reductions that can be achieved using existing technologies, but on the breakthrough technologies that are needed to reduce emissions dramatically. The challenges are formidable. Indeed, it is possible that the revolution needed to dramatically reduce emissions of greenhouse gases will fail. Should the climate change abruptly, the incentive to “engineer” the climate will be strong. There will be a climate–technology revolution, but its nature will depend on the institutions we develop to address the challenge we face.