感知风险的度量

Measures of Perceived Risk

Management Science · 1999
被引 119
人大 A+FT50UTD24ABS 4*

中文导读

基于标准风险度量,提出两类感知风险度量方法,通过将彩票分解为均值和标准风险,分别适用于规范性决策和描述性风险判断,并统一了风险判断的实证证据。

Abstract

Based on our previous work on the standard measure of risk, this paper presents two classes of measures for perceived risk by decomposing a lottery into its mean and standard risk. One of the classes of our risk measures presumes that there is no risk when there is no uncertainty involved, and the other allows different degenerate lotteries to be evaluated with different values of “risk.” The former has more prescriptive appeal in risky decision making, but the latter may have more descriptive power for subjective risk judgments. Our risk measures can also take into account the asymmetric effects of losses and gains on perceived risk based on an appropriate choice of the standard measure of risk. The perceived risk models we propose unify a large body of empirical evidence regarding risk judgments, and provide sufficient flexibility to better capture people's perceptions of risk than previously developed risk models. In particular, our risk measures provide clear ways to accommodate financial measures of risk and psychological measures of risk, and they can be incorporated into preference models in an appealing form based on mean-risk tradeoffs.

感知风险度量标准风险度量均值-风险权衡风险判断