‘Push’ versus ‘pull’ factors in migration outflows and returns: Determinants of migration status and spell duration among China's rural population
利用中国农村家庭数据，研究农村劳动力外出与回迁的决定因素，发现迁移模式是个人在不完全市场和不确定性环境下的理性反应，对政策制定者理解并管理农村人口流动有参考价值。
The tremendous abundance of labour in rural areas is one of the most perplexing issues currently facing policy-makers in the People's Republic of China. Central and municipal authorities fear that large-scale labour movement out of rural China will have politically and socially destabilising effects on the cities and towns to which workers migrate. Recognising that there may be positive economic aspects associated with rural labour outflow, this research seeks to shed light on the transfer process with an emphasis on identifying the factors which motivate the observed frequent movement of migrants between their origin and destination points. Using household data collected in rural China, we investigate both out migration and return migration decisions. We demonstrate that observed migration patterns are the outcome of informed, rational responses to an environment filled with uncertainty and incomplete markets. To the extent that policymakers wish to minimise the more transient component of rural out-migration, attention must be paid to the underlying rural and urban institutions which give rise to the observed migration patterns.