Employment Effects of Army Service and Veterans' Compensation: Evidence from the Australian Vietnam-Era Conscription Lotteries
利用澳大利亚1965至1972年征兵抽签的自然实验，发现兵役使就业率下降12个百分点，其中在越南服役者下降37个百分点，而仅在澳大利亚本土服役者无影响，该效应在1990年代出现且与伤残抚恤金效应同步。
Exploiting Australia's National Service lotteries of 1965 to 1972, I estimate the effect of army service on employment outcomes. Population data from military personnel records, tax returns, veterans' compensation records, and the Census facilitate a rich and precise analysis, identified by 53, 000 complying conscripts. The estimated employment effect is −12 percentage points (95% CI: −13, −11) overall, −37 for those who served in Vietnam and 0 for those who served only in Australia. It emerged in the 1990s, mirrored by veterans' disability pension effects. These results contrast with those for the United States, possibly reflecting employment disincentives associated with Australia's veterans' compensation system. © 2013 The President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.