Exchange Rates and Cash Flows in Differentiated Product Industries: A Simulation Approach
扩展了产业组织中的模拟方法，利用差异化产品的价格、数量和特征数据，结合离散选择模型和价格竞争假设，估计边际成本，并通过蒙特卡洛方法生成不同汇率水平下的反事实价格和利润，以分析汇率变化如何影响企业现金流。以瓶装水市场为例，说明不同品牌面临截然不同的汇率风险。
ABSTRACT How do exchange rate changes impact firms' cash flows? We extend a simulation method developed in industrial organization to answer this question. We use prices, quantities, and product characteristics for differentiated products, coupled with a discrete choice framework and an assumption of price competition, to estimate marginal costs for all producers. Using a Monte Carlo approach we generate counterfactual prices and profits for different levels of exchange rates. We illustrate the method using the market for bottled water. Our results stress that even in a relatively simple market such as this one, different brands face very different exchange rate risks.