A Stochastic Model of Superstardom: An Application of the Yule Distribution
用尤尔和西蒙的随机模型解释消费者对艺术产品的选择，发现该模型能很好描述流行音乐行业的数据，表明超级明星现象可能源于随机过程而非天赋差异。
This study employs a stochastic model developed by G. Udny Yule and Herbert A. Simon as the probability mechanism underlying the consumer's choice of artistic products and predicts that artistic outputs will be concentrated among a few lucky individuals. We find that the probability distribution implied by the stochastic model provides an excellent description of the empirical data in the popular music industry, suggesting that the stochastic model may represent the process generating the superstar phenomenon. Because the stochastic model does not require differential talents among individuals, our empirical results support the notion that the superstar phenomenon could exist among individuals with equal talent. Copyright 1994 by MIT Press.