Of Mad Cows and Marmosets: From Rational Choice to Organizational Behaviour in Crisis Management
基于英国政府处理疯牛病的案例，研究决策理论中不确定性与风险的区别对风险管理者的实际意义，发现政府决策偏离标准理论，忽视成本收益分析和公众偏好。
SUMMARY The paper is motivated by discussions in decision theory about the practical relevance of a distinction between uncertainty and risk. Based on a study of the government's handling of bovine spongiform encephalopathy, the study examines the importance of this distinction to risk managers. To structure the investigation, seven models from the decision theory literature are used to provide hypotheses about the way in which decisions under uncertainty might be framed. Section 3 presents a summary of events relating to BSE as reported over a 6‐year period in The Times and the analysis is presented in section 4. Decision making under uncertainty appears to be important but is conducted in ways that depart from standard prescriptions. The government's position is presented as being one of a search for natural science solutions combined with international and national negotiation. Decision making under risk, explicit analysis of costs and benefits, updating of beliefs based on new information and concern for social preferences are pointedly absent from the government's approach. A number of problems with the decision‐making process are identified and the paper concludes by noting the critical importance to risk managers. even in the public sector, of understanding the dynamics of media behaviour.