Forecasting Wheat Exports: Do Exchange Rates Matter?
用美国数据拟合向量自回归模型，分析汇率对小麦销售和出货量的影响，发现汇率影响很小。
A vector autoregression is fit to recent U.S. data on wheat prices, wheat export sales, wheat export shipments, and exchange rates. Forecast error decompositions and out-of-sample forecasts indicate that exchange rates have little influence on wheat sales and shipments.