Measuring consumer uncertainty about future inflation
提出一种基于调查的消费者通胀不确定性测量方法，让消费者对通胀结果进行密度预测，发现消费者能有效表达不确定性，且该测量与人口特征、金融素养及点预测相关。
Abstract We introduce a survey‐based measure of uncertainty about future inflation, asking consumers for density forecasts across inflation outcomes. Consumers are willing and able to express uncertainty, showing high response rates and response patterns that are reliably related to qualitative measures of uncertainty. Heterogeneity in expressed uncertainty is associated with demographic characteristics and financial literacy, and measures of central tendency derived from density forecasts are strongly correlated with point forecasts. Furthermore, expressed uncertainty is positively related to point forecast levels and to larger revisions in point forecasts over time. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.