A SIMPLE METHOD FOR ESTIMATING QUARTERLY LOCAL‐AREA PERSONAL INCOME*
提出一个单方程计量模型，用于按季度估算县及县集合（如都市区）的个人收入，实验表明对大型区域准确度高，且优于现有年度估算。
ABSTRACT A single‐equation econometric approach is developed for estimating personal income on a quarterly basis for counties and county aggregates (e.g., metropolitan areas). An experiment is conducted on state data to test the accuracy of the estimates. The experiment indicates that they would be highly accurate for large local areas; for local areas comprising at least 20 percent of their state's total personal income, the estimates would fall within 2 percent of BEA‐type estimates 95 percent of the time. An aggregate estimation approach is shown to be preferable to a component approach. Using data on local department store sales, the quarterly personal income estimates are shown to forecast better than the currently available annual estimates.