A DECISION THEORY EXAMPLE IN FOOTBALL
以1967年哈佛-康奈尔橄榄球赛为例，基于获胜、平局或失利的相对效用以及踢球与跑传的成功概率，推导出最大期望效用的决策规则，帮助教练在类似场景中做出选择。
ABSTRACT In the 1967 Harvard‐Cornell football game, Harvard was ahead 14–0 late in the game when Cornell scored two touchdowns. On both occasions, Cornell tried and failed on the two‐point conversion attempt and lost the game 14–12. Postgame arguments were divided on the merits of Cornell's strategy. For this frequently occurring scenario in college football, we derive a maximum expected utility decision rule for the decision of kicking versus running/passing based on the relative utility of a win, a tie, or a loss and the probabilities of success with a kick as opposed to a run/pass.