OIL EXPORTS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE MIDDLE EAST
用计量方法研究了北非和中东主要产油国过去二十年中石油出口对经济发展的作用，发现石油出口对整体经济带动有限，且未能有效刺激制造业。
This study represents an econometric investigation into the role played by exports in the process of economic development of the major oil producers in North Africa and the Middle-East over the past two decades. Single as well as simultaneous equation models were tested using aggregate and disaggregate data. Aggregate real analysis suggests that there is little evidence of spread effects of oil exports to the rest of the economy. Sectoral analysis indicates that the expansion in oil exports was not fully exploited in stimulating the manufacturing sector. Aggregate and disaggregate investment analysis clearly suggests that gross fixed capital formation, limited as may be, is extremely sensitive to growth in oil exports in all countries considered with the exception of Kuwait and Libya. The statistical results of the simultaneous relationships suggest the absence of feedback effects.