Prices, wages, and import prices in Israel: 1970–1983
利用以色列1970-1983年加速通胀时期的数据，实证研究价格、工资和进口价格的动态关系，发现通胀率自身的滞后项是主要解释因素，而工资对短期通胀的解释力不足，并支持价格冲击对通胀过程的贡献。
Abstract This paper presents an empirical investigation of the dynamics of prices, wages and import prices in a small open economy using data for Israel in the accelerating inflationary period of 1970–1983. The appropriateness of the specification of a price equation as a function of import prices and wages is critically reviewed using Sims's methodology. The main finding is that the only significant lags in the representation of the rate of change in prices, wages and import prices are the lags of the rate of change in prices (the rate of inflation). Other factors in the representation are attributed to market forces influencing real wages and the real exchange rate. Testing the correlation of the estimated VAR residuals leads to the conclusion that a short‐term inflation equation specified as a function of present and past wages is not acceptable. A further decomposition of the VAR residuals presents evidence in favour the hypothesis that price shocks contribute to the explanation of the inflationary process in Israel. A rational expectation interpretation of the results is proposed, followed by some policy implications.