Money Market Pressure and the Determinants of Banking Crises
构建了一个货币市场压力指数来识别银行危机，并利用47国数据发现实际GDP放缓、低实际利率、高通胀、财政赤字和汇率高估是危机的前兆。
This article develops an index of money market pressure to identify banking crises. We define banking crises as periods in which there is excessive demand for liquidity in the money market. We begin with the theoretical foundation of this new method. With the newly defined crisis episodes, we examine the determinants of banking crises using data complied from 47 countries. We find that slowdown of real GDP, lower real interest rates, extremely high inflation, large fiscal deficits, and over‐valued exchange rates tend to precede banking crises. The effects of monetary base growth on the probability of banking crises are negligible.