Robust optimal monetary policy in a forward‐looking model with parameter and shock uncertainty
研究政策制定者面临模型参数和冲击过程不确定性时，如何制定稳健的最优政策规则，发现利率对通胀和产出缺口波动的反应比无不确定性时更强，但不确定性可能放大最优货币政策所需的“超惯性”。
Abstract This paper characterizes a robust optimal policy rule in a simple forward‐looking model, when the policymaker faces uncertainty about model parameters and shock processes. We show that the robust optimal policy rule is likely to involve a stronger response of the interest rate to fluctuations in inflation and the output gap than is the case in the absence of uncertainty. Thus parameter uncertainty alone does not necessarily justify a small response of monetary policy to perturbations. However, uncertainty may amplify the degree of ‘super‐inertia’ required by optimal monetary policy. We finally discuss the sensitivity of the results to alternative assumptions. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.