Evaluating the Classification of Economic Activity into Recessions and Expansions
研究了美国国家经济研究局商业周期测定委员会在划分经济扩张与衰退时的准确性，以及哪些经济指标最能反映当前和预测未来的周期转折点。
The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research provides a historical chronology of business cycle turning points. We investigate three central aspects of this chronology. How skillful is the Dating Committee when classifying economic activity into expansions and recessions? Which indices of economic conditions best capture the current but unobservable state of the business cycle? And which indicators best predict future turning points, and at what horizons? We answer each of these questions in detail using methods specifically designed to assess classification ability. In the process, we clarify several important features of the business cycle.