Does Global Liquidity Help to Forecast U.S. Inflation?
用七国集团广义货币增速构建全球流动性指标，发现其预测美国通胀的准确性优于美国货币增长、菲利普斯曲线等传统模型，尤其在3年预测期上表现突出。
We construct a measure of global liquidity using the growth rates of broad money for the G7 economies. Global liquidity produces forecasts of U.S. inflation that are significantly more accurate than the forecasts based on U.S. money growth, Phillips curve, and autoregressive and moving average models. The marginal predictive power of global liquidity is strong at 3‐year horizons. Results are robust to alternative measures of inflation.