The Effects on Output of Money Growth and Interest Rate Volatility in the United States
估计了1979年后美联储政策变化（抑制通胀且不再稳定利率）对美国产出的影响，发现利率波动加剧与货币增长放缓对经济停滞的贡献几乎相当。
In October 1979, the Federal Reserve began a policy of disinflation and also stopped stabilizing interest rates. Subsequently, interest rates became much more volatile. Using a methodology advanced by Barro, this paper estimates what this change in policy did to output in the United States. The paper finds that the stagnation of the U.S. economy since 1979 stemmed almost as much from increased interest rate volatility as from reduced money growth. The paper also assesses the extent to which increased volatility of money growth has contributed to stagnation. It finds no evidence of any appreciable contribution. The paper concludes that stabilizing interest rates is probably sensible monetary policy.