On Expectations Formation when Future Welfare is Contemplated
研究了人们从思考美好未来中获得当前满足的行为对预期形成的影响，发现这种“思考”行为会导致信息有偏的预测，并给出了调查预期偏差的选择理论解释。
SUMMARY People often seem to gain present satisfaction from contemplating a favourable future. This paper examines the implications of such behaviour for expectations formation. Formally, satisfaction is said to be derived from ‘contemplation’ whenever ex post utility depends on expectations independently of their bearing on ex ante actions. Contemplation is shown to be necessary and sufficient for informationally biased forecasting in a model of the intertemporal consumption decision. Thus the MUTH‐rationality of expectations requires restrictions on the (derived) preference ordering over expectations and realizations which preclude contemplation. Bias tests of surveyed expectations are given a choice‐theoretic interpretation.