Opium for the Masses? Conflict-Induced Narcotics Production in Afghanistan
研究了阿富汗冲突如何通过增加农民对法律缺失的感知和破坏替代作物基础设施，刺激鸦片生产，利用西方敌对伤亡数据证实因果关系。
To explain the rise in Afghan opium production, we explore how rising conflicts change the incentives of farmers. Conflicts make illegal opportunities more profitable as they increase the perceived lawlessness and destroy infrastructure crucial to alternative crops. Exploiting a unique data set, we show that Western hostile casualties, our proxy for conflict, have a strong impact on subsequent local opium production. Using the period after the planting season as a placebo test, we show that conflict has a strong effect before but no effect after planting, indicating causality.