High-Definition Television: Assessing Demand Forecasts for a Next Generation Consumer Durable
提出一种结合产品细分和需求预测的方法，用于评估美国高清电视（HDTV）的销售预测报告，发现其中一份报告与家电行业历史数据一致，对政府决策有参考价值。
High-Definition Television promises to be the next generation of television. This technology has broad implications for consumer markets, as well as the underlying manufacturing, technology development, and R&D activities of firms. Under increasing pressure from various groups, the U.S. government must make major policy and funding decisions based on its assessment of the likely demand for HDTV. Three published reports which forecast sales of HDTV after its scheduled introduction in the mid-1990s are available. Unfortunately, these forecasts offer widely differing perspectives on HDTV's potential. This paper presents an approach that links product segmentation (based on historical demand parameters, and marketing and manufacturing related variables) and demand forecasting for new products. The published HDTV forecasts are then assessed using this segmentation scheme. Differing from the Congressional Budget Office's earlier evaluation, this analysis indicates that one report is consistent with historical data from the home appliance industry.