Political Stock Markets and Unreliable Polls
研究发现政治股票市场在预测瑞典是否加入欧盟的公投结果上明显优于民调，但存在价格扭曲的障碍。
A political stock market (PSM) clearly beat the polls in predicting the outcome of a Swedish referendum on whether or not Sweden should join the European Union. In fact, polls were unable to make such predictions since the number of undecided respondents always far exceeded the observed YES/NO margin. However, an obstacle to PSMs serving as a superior forecasting instrument is that they can be sensitive to price distortions ‐ by interest groups that may wish to effectuate, and pay for, such distortions ‐ or forecast competitions tied to PSM trade gains, the latter of which was tested here.