The influence of elections on IMF programme interruptions
研究了1975至1998年间104个国家的面板数据，发现选举前IMF项目更易中断，但民主程度高的国家中断概率较低，且高政府消费、高短期债务和低人均GDP也增加中断风险。
Using panel data for 104 countries between 1975 and 1998, this article tries to explain interruptions of IMF programmes around election dates in the recipient countries. On average, programmes seem to be more likely to break down before elections. This increase in interruption probabilities is, however, less severe in more democratic countries. In true democracies interruption frequencies are even lower prior to elections. While no other political variables than elections and democracy were found to influence compliance systematically, programme interruptions are significantly more likely in countries with high government consumption, high levels of short-term debt and low GDP per capita at programme initiation.