Who gains, who loses? Welfare effects of classical swine fever epidemics in the Netherlands
结合部门市场模型和随机流行病模型，模拟荷兰1997-1998年古典猪瘟疫情，计算不同情景下利益相关者的福利变化和政府成本，发现疫情规模和出口禁令对福利分配有显著影响。
A sectoral market model and a stochastic epidemiological model were used to simulate the effects of classical swine fever (CSF) epidemics in the Netherlands in 1997--1998. Compulsory EU control measures were implemented. Welfare changes of Dutch stakeholders, as well as government costs, were calculated. In a medium-sized epidemic without export restrictions, pig producers' surplus increased by Euro 502 million, but producers within quarantine areas lost. Consumer surplus fell by Euro 552 million. With a ban on live pig exports, pig producers collectively lost whereas consumers gained or experienced only a small loss. Government costs were lower when exports were banned, although net welfare losses were higher. Net welfare losses increased more than proportionately with epidemic size. Copyright 2003, Oxford University Press.