Measuring Industrial Stagnation: The Case of the US Railroads
运用现代财政风险分析工具，通过铁路股票持有期收益率长期序列衡量产业停滞，并揭示铁路行业在低回报率下如何通过金融创新持续融资。
This paper first applies to railroads the tools of modern fiscal risk analysis, using the long-term series of holding period rates of return on railroad shares to derive a measure of industrial stagnation. This analysis is then used to gain added insights into the industry's transition from growth to stagnation. While fundamental disequilibrium produces a continuing low rate of return, railroads have succeeded in raising substantial capital on a continuing basis despite frequent bankruptcies and financial crises by resorting to financial innovations. The equipment trust certificate is cited as an example, an investment instrument which effectively shields the investor from the riskiness of enterprise. This has enabled railroads to raise debt capital at a relatively low-risk premium.