Interest Rate Control and Nonconvergence to Rational Expectations
证明，在一般条件下，钉住名义利率的货币政策会使任何满足弱条件的适应性学习机制都无法收敛到理性预期，而是引发弗里德曼描述的累积过程。该结论对基于微观的金融约束模型和IS-LM模型均成立，并暗示忽视预期稳定性问题的理性预期分析存在严重局限。
Under general conditions, a monetary policy of pegging the nominal rate of interest will make it possible for any adaptive learning mechanism that satisfies a weak and plausible condition to converge to rational expectations. Instead, under such a policy an economy will undergo a cumulative process of the sort described.by Milton Friedman. This is shown in a micro-based finance constraint model as well as an IS-LM model. The same result applies also to more flexible policies of interest control and suggests a severe limitation to rational expectations analyses that ignore the issue of expectational stability. Copyright 1992 by University of Chicago Press.