An Empirical Analysis of Earnings and Employment Risk
利用1995年意大利家庭收入与财富调查中的主观预期数据，分析未来收入分布和失业概率，探讨个体不确定性如何随生命周期变化以及风险态度对职业选择和收入风险的影响。
The mean and higher moments of the distribution of future income are crucial determinants of individual choices. These moments are usually estimated in panel data from past income realizations. Inthis article we rely instead on subjective expectations available in the 1995 Survey of Household Income and Wealth, a large random sample representative of Italian households. The survey elicits information on the distribution of future earnings and on the probability of unemployment. Analysis of this distribution helps us understand how individual uncertainty evolves over the life cycle and if attitudes toward risk affect occupational choices and income riskiness.