UNCERTAINTY, IRREVERSIBILITY AND THE LOSS OF AGRICULTURAL LAND
指出，过去评估农业用地转为其他用途时忽略了不确定性和不可逆性，这会导致开发价值被高估。通过回顾现有方法，论证了农业价值变化率的不确定性要求采用更保守的决策标准，并给出了数值例子和敏感性分析。
In the past, evaluations of the transfer of agricultural land to other uses have generally failed to incorporate the issues of uncertainty and irreversibility into the analysis. This can lead to an overestimation of development values. The paper commences with a brief review of the approaches which have been adopted in the assessment of the loss of agricultural land. It is then demonstrated that uncertainty relating to the rate of change of agricultural values through time requires the adoption of a more conservative decision criterion in the evaluation of irreversible land use changes than would otherwise be applied. This is followed by a numerical example and sensitivity analysis. The paper concludes with a discussion of these results.