The impact of soda taxes on consumer welfare: implications of storability and taste heterogeneity
基于动态需求模型估计汽水税的价格弹性，发现静态分析高估长期自价格弹性60.8%，导致高估消费减少量达57.9%，表明汽水税能增加收入但难以显著减少消费。
The typical analysis on the effectiveness of soda taxes relies on price elasticity estimates from static demand models, which ignores consumers' inventory behaviors and their persistent tastes. This article provides estimates of the relevant price elasticities based on a dynamic demand model that better addresses potential intertemporal substitution and unobservable persistent heterogeneous tastes. It finds that static analyses overestimate the long‐run own‐price elasticity of regular soda by 60.8%, leading to overestimated consumption reduction of sugar‐sweetened soft drinks by up to 57.9% in some cases. Results indicate that soda taxes will raise revenue but are unlikely to substantially impact soda consumption.