Urbanization and poverty reduction: the role of rural diversification and secondary towns1
基于坦桑尼亚农村家庭面板数据，发现约一半脱贫者通过转向农村非农经济或二级城镇实现脱贫，而迁往大城市者虽消费增长更快但脱贫比例较低；跨国分析表明农村多样化和二级城镇发展比大城市化更具包容性。
Abstract A rather unique panel tracking more than 3,300 individuals from households in rural Kagera, Tanzania, during 1991/1994–2010 shows that about one out of two individuals/households who exited poverty did so by transitioning out of agriculture into the rural nonfarm economy or secondary towns. Only one out of seven exited poverty by migrating to the big cities, even though those moving to the city experienced on average faster consumption growth. Further analysis of a much larger cross‐country panel of 51 developing countries cannot reject that rural diversification and secondary town development lead to more inclusive growth patterns than metropolitization. Indications are that this follows because more of the poor find their way to the rural nonfarm economy and secondary towns, than to distant cities. The development discourse would benefit from shifting beyond the rural–urban dichotomy and focusing more instead on how best to urbanize and develop its rural nonfarm economy and secondary towns.