The Sources of Financial Crisis: Pre- and Post-Fed Evidence
研究一战前后货币供需冲击如何引发金融危机，以及美联储的成立如何通过隔离外部冲击来预防危机，使用结构向量自回归模型提供证据。
This paper investigates the generation and the propagation mechanism of currency demand and supply shocks before and after World War I, the structural determinants of the variability of stock prices and interest rates, and the changes introduced by the creation of the Fed on the dynamics of the system. It is shown that in the pre-1914 era external monetary shocks interacted with a seasonal demand for money to produce financial crises. The Fed helped to prevent crises by insulating the U.S. economy from external shocks. A structural vector autoregressive model provides evidence for these claims. Copyright 1991 by Economics Department of the University of Pennsylvania and the Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association.