Considering an Informational Role for a Futures Market
比较无期货市场环境下现货价格对未来价格的预测能力，并考察引入期货交易后价格系统预测力的变化。结果发现，现货价格预测能力越弱，越可能催生期货市场；期货价格能帮助部分商品的信息收集者获利。
This study compares how well current spot prices predict future spot prices for a variety of commodities in a non-futures market environment and examines how the predictive power of the price system is altered after the initiation of futures trading. The results indicate a positive association between the inability of a non-futures market price system to predict the future spot price and the subsequent development of a futures market. The claim that traders can earn a return on information collection after the introduction of a futures price into the pricing system is supported for some, but not all, commodities.