International Financial Volatility and Commodity Exports: Evidence from the Thai Agricultural Sector
利用泰国1981-2006年数据，估计实际汇率波动对五种主要农产品出口的影响，发现波动对出口量有显著负效应，但对农业生产无滞后影响。
Abstract Using 1981–2006 data from the Bank of Thailand, I estimate the effect of four measures of real exchange rate volatility on Thai exports of five key agricultural commodities, controlling for both the level of the real exchange rate and foreign incomes. Estimates of the effect of volatility on export volume are generally negative and often significant, lending support to a range of theoretical models that predict such an effect. No such relationship exists between lagged values of exchange rate volatility and agricultural production. The range of results obtained using various measures of volatility suggests caution in comparing studies using different measures.