Estimating Trade Elasticities: Demand Composition and the Trade Collapse of 2008–2009
基于进口强度调整后的总需求指标，利用OECD投入产出表计算需求成分的进口强度，发现需求构成（尤其是投资和出口）对贸易动态有重要影响，并用18个OECD国家的数据验证了该机制，特别关注2008-2009年大贸易崩溃。
This paper introduces a new empirical model of international trade flows based on an import intensity-adjusted measure of aggregate demand. We compute the import intensity of demand components by using the OECD Input-Output tables. We argue that the composition of demand plays a key role in trade dynamics because of the relatively larger movements in the most import-intensive categories of expenditure (especially investment, but also exports). We provide evidence in favor of these mechanisms for a panel of 18 OECD countries, paying particular attention to the 2008–2009 Great Trade Collapse.