Estimating the Effect of the Age Distribution on Cyclical Output Volatility Across the United States
利用美国各州人口结构差异，估计青年人口占比对周期性产出波动的影响，发现青年占比可解释近期商业周期波动减少的58%。
I exploit the variation in demographic change across the United States to estimate the relationship between the age distribution in the population and the magnitude of cyclical output volatility. According to panel regression estimates, the relative supply of young workers, or youth share, has a statistically significant effect on the volatility of state-by-state GDP. Moreover, changes to the age distribution can account for up to 58% of the recent reduction in business cycle fluctuations, indicating a critical link between the youth share and output volatility. © 2012 The President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.