Sectoral Shifts and Cyclical Unemployment Reconsidered
基于行业股票超额收益的方差构建了重新配置冲击的新指标，利用贝弗里奇曲线验证其有效性，发现该冲击平均仅解释美国失业波动的中等份额，但在1970年代中期等时期贡献显著，且对长期失业影响更大。
This paper develops a new measure of reallocation shocks based on the variance of industry stock market excess returns to assess the contribution of sectoral reallocation to unemployment in the postwar U. S. economy. The Beveridge Curve relationship is used to establish that this series isolates reallocation shocks. Reallocation shocks are found to explain only a moderate share of the fluctuations in aggregate unemployment on average over the period. However, reallocation accounted for a substantial share of increases in unemployment in several episodes, particularly the mid-1970s. Reallocation shocks also account for a larger share of fluctuations in unemployment of longer durations than of shorter durations.