WORLD ENERGY DEMAND AND CRUDE OIL PRICES TO THE YEAR 2000
综合近期文献中的世界能源需求预测，认为非共产主义世界2000年初级能源需求约90亿吨油当量，并指出OPEC市场将持续面临超额需求，基于判断而非模型预测油价年增10%。
This paper takes an overall look at world energy demand forecasts contained in the recent literature. From the ‘consensus’ data the paper suggests a non‐communist world primary energy demand in 2000 of about 9,000 million tonnes oil equivalent. The focus then shifts to the demand for, and supply of, OPEC oil and it is argued that persistent excess demand will characterise this market for the remainder of the century. Observation of models of OPEC pricing behaviour suggests they are poor reflections of real world oil markets. As such, judgement rather than explicit modelling is used to suggest a world crude oil scenario in which oil prices rise at 10% p.a.