UNCERTAINTY, IRREVERSIBILITY AND THE LOSS OF AGRICULTURAL LAND: A RECONSIDERATION
重新审视了Hodge（1984）关于农业用地向城市用途不可逆转移的讨论，指出其准期权价值估计不令人满意，并提供了修正估计，同时质疑准期权价值作为操作概念的有用性，建议将不确定性下的不可逆决策问题作为随机动态规划问题来解决。
A previous article has discussed how the irreversible transfer of land from agricultural to urban uses should be addressed (Hodge, 1984). If the future value of land in either use is uncertain, some additional value should be placed on a decision which keeps future options open by retaining land in agriculture. It is argued that Hodge's estimates of the value, known as quasi‐option value, are unsatisfactory, and revised estimates are provided. More fundamentally, the usefulness of quasi‐option value as an operational concept is queried. It is better to solve irreversible decision problems under uncertainty as stochastic dynamic programming problems.