Targeting Inflation by Constant-Interest-Rate Forecasts
回顾了恒定利率通胀预测目标制，指出其时间不一致性，并提出在包含前瞻性变量的模型中一致构建此类预测的新方法。通过动态新凯恩斯模型说明，选择较长预测目标期的主要原因是平滑利率，而较短期能实现更大的名义和实际稳定。
This paper reviews the concept of constant-interest-rate inflation forecast (CIR) targeting. It stresses the time-inconsistent nature of CIR targeting and provides a new method for constructing CIR forecasts consistently in the context of models with forward-looking variables. A dynamic New Keynesian model with forward-looking price setting is used as an illustration, suggesting that the main reason for choosing a relatively long forecast targeting horizon lies in the monetary authorities' objective to smooth interest rate movements, as greater nominal and real stabilization is achieved at a relatively short inflation forecast targeting horizon.