NET MIGRATION, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND THE BUSINESS CYCLE*
在均衡区位模型框架下，实证检验外生冲击对区域人口规模的影响，发现冲击大小比基于商业周期的复杂指标更能解释迁移。
"An empirical test of the effects of exogenous shocks upon a region's population size is conducted in the framework of an equilibrium locational model. The model emphasizes the separation of endogenous from exogenous factors, a point omitted in most empirical studies of aggregate migration. Exogenous changes are manifested in the local relative cost of living and the local relative unemployment rate. Hypotheses are tested using a national sample of youth, in addition to census, data [for the United States]. Surprisingly, a simple measure of the size of shock to a regional economy has the greatest explanatory power compared to more sophisticated measures based on prior business cycles."