Uncertainty and Export Performance: Evidence from 18 Countries
研究9个发达国家和9个发展中国家的数据，发现汇率不确定性对发展中国家出口增长有显著负面影响，但对发达国家影响不显著；外国收入不确定性对两组国家贸易的影响更普遍且更大。
We study a sample of nine developed and nine developing countries to evaluate the questions of how foreign income uncertainty and real exchange rate (RER) uncertainty impact international trade and how those impacts vary according to stage of development. RER uncertainty has a negative and significant impact on export growth for six of the nine less developed countries in our sample, while it has an insignificant effect for a majority of the developed countries. In both groups, foreign income uncertainty has a more pervasively significant (and frequently larger) influence on trade than does RER uncertainty.