Discounting of Life-Saving and Other Nonmonetary Effects
论证了在成本效益分析中,当涉及难以货币化的效益(如拯救生命)时,非货币效应的折现率必须与货币成本的折现率相等,否则可能导致延迟改善项目的悖论。
Cost-effectiveness analysts generally assume that preferences over time are such that streams of monetary and nonmonetary program effects can be reduced to one discounted sum of monetary costs and another of effects. It is known that if the nonmonetary effects can be cashed out in a way that does not vary with time, then the rates of discount for monetary and nonmonetary effects have to be equal. This paper presents a more compelling argument for the equality of those rates when hard to monetize benefits such as life-saving are involved. It shows that if the ability to produce the nonmonetary effect does not diminish too quickly over time, failure to discount benefits implies that programs are always improved by delay. In general, discounting benefits and costs at different rates can lead to peculiar results.