Decomposing changes in agricultural price gaps: an application to Russia
提出一种分解农业价格差距变化的方法,并用俄罗斯数据证明,转型期价格差距变化的主因是汇率不完全传导至国内价格,而这主要源于市场基础设施薄弱而非政策干预。
Abstract The article develops a method for decomposing changes in agricultural price gaps, defined as the difference between a commodity's domestic producer and border prices. We use OECD's procedure for decomposing changes in the market price support part of producer support estimates as the starting point for our decomposition method, and our method provides a basis for critiquing OECD's decomposition approach. The transmission of changes in border prices (world prices and the exchange rate) to domestic prices is a key element in the decomposition. The method is demonstrated using Russian agricultural price gaps. The results support the argument that for Russian agriculture during the transition period, the main cause of changes in price gaps has been incomplete transmission of changes in the exchange rate to domestic prices, and where the weak transmission results mainly not from policy intervention, but rather from deficient market conditions, in particular poor market infrastructure. The policy implication is that underdeveloped infrastructure has strongly limited the benefits to the Russian economy from agricultural trade liberalization.