Traders' Expectations in Asset Markets: Experimental Evidence
通过实验研究交易者在重复市场中对未来价格的预测，发现其信念基于过去趋势，多数人首次参与时无法预见市场下跌，经验丰富者则高估市场见顶和下跌的时间。
We elicit traders' predictions of future price trajectories in repeated experimental markets for a 15-period-lived asset. We find that individuals' beliefs about prices are adaptive, and primarily based on past trends in the current and previous markets in which they have participated. Most traders do not anticipate market downturns the first time they participate in a market, and, when experienced, they typically overestimate the time remaining before market peaks and downturns occur. When prices deviate from fundamental values, belief data are informative to an observer in predicting the direction of future price movements and the timing of market peaks.