Testing Rationality in the Point Spread Betting Market
利用美国国家橄榄球联盟比赛的点差投注数据，通过统计和经济两类检验考察市场理性，发现统计检验无法拒绝理性，但经济检验拒绝理性。
ABSTRACT This paper presents empirical tests of market rationality using data from the point spread betting market on National Football League games. Data from this market avoid many common pitfalls of tests of rationality in conventional financial markets. The authors test for rationality with two types of tests, statistical and economic. Results of the tests reveal that the statistical tests cannot reject market rationality while the economic tests do reject market rationality.